Election News

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in final polling, but can he win the Electoral College?

A woman in a call center conducting a poll, but she's too happy for this to be a poll about Trump and Biden
Photo: Shutterstock

As Election Day starts, the final polls have provided some hints about whether Trump or Biden will win key battleground states.

Nationally, the polling aggregation sites FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics have Biden leading Trump. FiveThirtyEight has Biden leading Trump 51.8 percent to 43.4 percent, and RealClearPolitics has Biden leading Trump 50.7 percent to 44.0 percent.

Related: Voting deadlines, registration & what’s at stake for LGBTQ voters in 2020

A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll from Monday also showed Biden leading Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, and a Fox News poll released on Halloween shows Biden leading Trump by eight percent. But the polls in some battleground states tell a different story of a tighter race.

Here’s how polling looks in key battleground and swing states.

Arizona (11 electoral votes): While a Monday NBC News/Marist poll showed a tied race in Arizona with both candidates at 48 percent, a Sunday New York Times/Siena College poll gave Biden a six-point lead.

Florida (29 electoral votes): A Monday Quinnipiac University poll placed Biden ahead by five points.

Georgia (16 electoral votes): A Monday Landmark Communications poll has Trump leading Biden by four points, and polls released on Sunday by WSB-TV/Landmark and InsiderAdvantage also show Trump leading by four and two points respectively.

Iowa (six electoral votes): A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted at the end of October shows Trump leading Biden by seven points. The same pollster correctly predicted a 2016 Trump win in the state.

Michigan (16 electoral votes): Five separate polls released by SurveyMonkey, Swayable, Change Research, and Research Co. all show Biden leading by anywhere from six to nine points.

Minnesota (10 electoral votes): Monday polls from Morning Consult and Research Company show Biden leading Trump by six percent and five percent, respectively.

Nevada (six electoral votes): The most recent polls all have Biden ahead. Data for Progress gives him a seven-point lead, and Emerson gives him a two-point lead.

New Hampshire (four electoral votes): Sunday surveys from SurveyMonkey show Biden beating Trump by seven to nine points. Clinton barely won the state in 2016 by 0.3 points.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes): Sunday polls from Reuters/Ipsos and CNBC poll show Biden leading by one to two points respectively. In 2016, Trump won the state by 3.7 points.

Ohio (18 electoral votes): The most recent polls here tell different stories. SurveyMonkey, Swayable, and Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research all show Trump winning by two to five points. But a Quinnipiac University poll shows Biden leading by four points, and a Research Company poll released this weekend shows Trump and Biden as tied.

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes): A Monday NBC News/Marist poll shows Biden leading Trump 51 percent to 46 percent. A Monmouth University poll and a Marist College poll also shows Biden leading by four to seven points. Only one recent poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. shows Trump leading, and only by a single point.

Texas (38 electoral votes): While the most recent polls show Trump leading, it’s by less than the nine points he won that state with in 2016. A weekend Emerson College poll has Trump leading by a single point and an AtlasIntel poll has Trump leading by three points. But a Data for Progress has Biden leading by one point.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes): Most recent polls are showing Biden with a commanding lead. A weekend Research Company poll has Biden leading by five points, and a CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by eight points.