When Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema officially became an independent last year, there was widespread concern among Democrats that she would help Republicans retake the chamber in 2024.
But that may not be the case. If Sinema were to run, her third-party candidacy would actually help Democrats, according to new polling.
An Emerson College poll shows the presumed Democratic nominee, Rep. Ruben Gallego, leading the top declared Republican in the field, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, by a 36%-29% margin. Sinema, for her part, pulls in 21% of the vote.
The findings are similar when the other declared Republican, businessman Brian Wright, is subbed in for Lamb. In those polls, Gallego tops the field with 37% of the vote, with Sinema registering 26% and Wright garnering 25%.
A deeper look into the numbers shows Sinema is pulling most of her support from right-leaning voters.
“It appears Senator Sinema pulls more support from Republican voters than Democrats on the ballot,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling. “About 21% of Republicans would vote for Sinema with Lamb on the ballot, and 34% of Republicans would support Sinema with Wright on the ballot. By contrast, Sinema only pulls about 8% of Democratic support from Gallego.”
Sinema, it’s important to note, hasn’t declared her candidacy. MAGA Republicans Kari Lake and Blake Masters, both of whom lost their races in 2020, also haven’t declared.
Hilarious. And makes complete sense.
— Michael (@jaxjm) August 8, 2023
The one good thing she could do for democrats……
— Brooklyn Kid 718 (@BigLdaGod) August 8, 2023
Sinema being deeply unpopular with Democrats is going to help Gallego but most Republicans likely go home to the Republican candidate if they aren’t a complete lunatic.
— Bob Sampson (@bobsalpha1) August 8, 2023
Once considered a raising star, Sinema, who’s bisexual, is now deeply unpopular in her home state. A recent Morning Consult poll shows she’s one of the 10 least popular senators in the U.S., right behind Lindsey Graham.
That’s not a place anybody wants to be!
Since joining the Senate in 2019, Sinema, despite being elected as a Democrat, has routinely thwarted party leadership. Most notably, she opposed Democrats’ attempts to eliminate the filibuster and efforts to overcome a procedural rule so they could pass voting rights legislation.
Last year, the Arizona Democratic Party censured the legislator.
Sinema, for her part, continues to work with private equity lobbyists on tax policy and criticizes the Biden Administration. Last week, she lambasted a recent federal injection of funds granted to New York City to help tackle its migrant crisis.
“I want you to know that I am continuing to fight this, and I am livid that the administration is sending money to a part of the country that, while it has a lot of folks showing up in their shelter, they don’t have folks wandering the streets of our small towns and communities or facing heat exhaustion showing up without basics like formula, people coming across the border with chickenpox,” she said.
In response to recent questions about party disloyalty, a Sinema spokesperson told Politico the senator “promised Arizonans she’d be an independent senator who delivers lasting solutions, and that’s exactly what she’s done.”
But polls show the voters who sent Sinema to the senate want her to act more in concert with the party she claimed to represent. The apparent apathy surrounding her possible candidacy is also reflected in her fundraising numbers.
Gallego nearly doubled Sinema’s fundraising total in the previous quarter.
Democrats are often fearful of spoiler candidates, and rightfully so. But in Arizona, they may finally have one who helps them.
This can’t be how Sinema drew it up.
I thought it was more likely Sinema would split the Republican vote than the Democratic vote. While underwater with every group, she has much higher support amongst GOP voters than your average Democrat.
— Joshua Karnitz (@karnman88) August 3, 2023
So once again Sinema is the spoiler.
— Mikela. 🇺🇸🌈 🇺🇦 ☘️🟧 (@Mikela34108880) August 3, 2023
Vote her out!!!
— Dianne Flack (@flack_dianne) August 5, 2023
I say it every time this happens , anyone elected that decides to change their party during their term should have to formally submit intent to change party and that seat should immediately be put into primary.
— Operator Chris (@operatornyc) August 3, 2023
Kyrsten Sinema doesn’t care about the job, she never has and she never will. Her only goal was to get rich from the grift, and she will continue to do so even after she is out of office.
— Michael VanDeMar (@mvandemar) August 3, 2023
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DBMC
I don’t know who she thinks her constituency will be. The Democrats, who elected her originally, hate her now. Republicans will vote for a Republican, and also don’t like her because she’s bisexual. She refuses to do town-halls or meet with voters. She’s not Joe Manchin. No one respects her.
abfab
Who is she? LOL
Kangol2
Her constituency is global corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms, and Wall Street banks.
Since SCOTUS (erroneously) said corporations were people, maybe she thinks she’ll get their votes as well as their money!
COTTONTOP
She’s the biggest disappointment in the entire Senate. Do the right things, Arizona; boot her out!
RoyM
Sinema is and has always been dishonest. Every word out of her mouth in her early political career was a lie. She was never progressive, never a Democrat, and never working for the people of Arizona. She’s always been most concerned with feathering her own nest. When she’s tossed out of office, there is no doubt she has high paying gigs lined up with Pharma, Fox News, etc.
mildredspierce
My interest in her lies only in what gawdawful thing she will wear next. Even Marge has better taste than that festering eyesore.
abfab
She dresses like a Soviet stewardess. Remind me who Marge is.
correctio
Marge Simpson you fool
abfab
Just don’t say she’s pan……we don’t want the GOPTROLLs to have a coronary.
decrans
In that same poll, Kari Lake shows tremendous gains among Republican candidates.
dbmcvey
If she and Kari Lake both run the Democrat will win for sure!
decrans
I’m not sure.
On Jan. 14, Lake-endorsed candidates were elected by grassroots Republicans to lead the Maricopa County Republican Party for the next two years. Her picks won three of the five offices including chair and first vice chair, defeating candidates endorsed by state GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward and Rep. Andy Biggs – both of whom are mentioned as possible Senate candidates in 2024.
I also recall Evan Mecham, the Pontiac dealer and far-right perennial politician who finally won a three-way race for governor: Mecham, Democrat and former state school Superintendent Carolyn Warner and Bill Schulz, a well-connected apartment developer who jumped into the race as an independent.
The top two issues for Arizona voters? Immigration and the economy. And with the Biden-flation economy, people typically view their financial future as an impending disaster.
Not to mention the fact that Katie Hobbs is just as unpopular as Joe Biden in a recent ruby-red state.
LeBlevsez
decrans –
Yup, then Lake’s republican party stooges drained the party’s already depleted coffers to fund her endless losing lawsuits. (Depleted by funding a “recount” of the 2020 presidential election that, despite their best efforts, actually increased the margin of Biden’s win, although their “recount” was a farce, so give it no weight and just accept Biden’s official victory.) At last report, the Maricopa Republican Party had about $70,000.00 in the bank.
Do you also recall that Evan Mecham was in office for barely a year before he was impeached and sent packing? His impeachment made way for Arizona’s first woman Governor. We’ve had four more since. More than any other state, and as of roughly 2010, Arizona accounted for more than a third of all the women Governors in the history of the U.S. We’ve also had almost as many Democratic Governors as Republican, including our current Governor Hobbs. She and President Biden are more popular here than you might care to consider.
Arizona isn’t ruby-red. Our less-stupid republicans have too much ‘maverick’ in ‘em.
Kangol2
Sinema is the quintessence of neoliberalism. She should go the way of that horrid ideology, to the dustbin!
Laryagar
I do wonder sometimes if she is bisexual. Outside of her public statement, was there ever any evidence? Given that she has lied about so many other subjects, it would not surprise me that she declared her bisexuality in an attempt for votes.