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Obama’s lead widens among LGBT voters, reports Harris/Logo TV survey

Sunday, November 4, 2012
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A follow-up poll conducted online in the United States by Harris Interactive, on behalf of Logo TV, shows that LGBT voters remain firmly on the side of supporting President Barack Obama for re-election.

In the days following the last of the presidential debates, Obama’s 44-point lead among LGBT voters in August expanded to 52 points by late October, reported Harris Interactive.

According to the survey, Obama’s increased support among LGBT voters does not stem from an uptick in views that he is the pro-LGBT candidate. Rather, it appears likely that having already established himself as a trusted ally on LGBT issues, LGBT voters who were initially unsure of their vote were open to the President establishing himself as the candidate best able to address all of their concerns, including their financial and economic worries.

  • While Mitt Romney actually overcame a 5-point deficit to +2 statistical tie among general population voters, his 52-point deficit among LGBT voters is more reminiscent of what exit polls looked like among gay voters in the Democratic year of 2008 (2008 exit poll of gay voters: +62 for Obama) than in the Republican year of 2010 (2010 exit poll of gay voters: +38 Republican candidates for the House of Representatives nationally).
  • The movement toward Obama is mostly a shift of LGBT voters who were unsure on the initial vote in August (9%) who have now moved to Obama.
  • If Election Day is as narrow as many are predicting, Romney’s inability to turn these unsure LGBT voters to his candidacy could mean the difference between victory and defeat.

According to the initial survey conducted in August, both LGBT and general population voters as a whole favored Obama, yet 1-in-5 said they would cast a ballot for Romney if he held the same views as Obama on gay rights.

The follow-up survey included 500 U.S. residents from the general population and 488 U.S. LGBT adults. Qualified respondents were U.S. residents who were 18 years or older, registered to vote, and were absolutely certain that they will vote in the 2012 presidential election or have already voted.

The complete survey results are here (PDF).

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